ETA of (search up to 10^20)

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AT Hiker

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Message 1045 - Posted: 31 Dec 2018, 21:53:12 UTC

The ETA when I looked a few months ago was Feb 2019.

Next time I looked it had moved to March 2019.

Currently it is April 2019.

Is the change due to the increase in processing time per wu or are there fewer people crunching?

Anybody want to make a SWAG as to what the ETA will actually be?

AT Hiker
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Allen Paschke

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Message 1046 - Posted: 1 Jan 2019, 1:32:32 UTC - in response to Message 1045.  

I would guess late-June / early-July of 2019.

1) The average task runtime has increased from 1.5 hours in mid-December to 2.0 hours currently. --- 0.5 hour increase in 15 days.

2) The task runtime will continue to increase as we slowly spiral closer and closer to 100%.

3) Because of the significant increase in runtimes for CPU tasks, I suspect many people who were running CPU tasks have stopped running them.
(I was running 2 CPU tasks per day, which averaged 15 hours runtime per task. Now that those CPU tasks are taking 40 - 60 hours runtime, I have stopped running them).
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AT Hiker

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Message 1047 - Posted: 1 Jan 2019, 15:09:37 UTC - in response to Message 1046.  

So it will be up to the GPUs to finish the run in a reasonable time.

A bonus of 25 percent -or more- credit might encourage more GPU folks to help finish the run.
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Allen Paschke

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Message 1061 - Posted: 19 Jan 2019, 0:54:08 UTC - in response to Message 1047.  

Here’s an update regarding the ETA of 10^20.

At year end:
- The project was 81.63% completed
- The task average runtime is 2.0 hours
- 0.14% of the project was being completed daily
- With no slowdown in runtime, the remaining 18.37% of the project, with 0.14% of the project being completed daily,
would be completed in 131 days, or 11 May 2019.

Now, on 18 January 2019:
- The project is 83.59% completed
- The task average runtime is 2.7 hours
- 0.09% of the project is being completed daily
- With no slowdown in runtime, the remaining 16.41% of the project, with 0.09% of the project was being completed daily,
would be completed in 182 days, or 19 July 2019.

During the first 18 days of January, the expected completion date, as calculated, is now 69 days further into the future.

With the continued runtime slowdown, 10^20 may not be completed in 2019.
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Allen Paschke

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Message 1079 - Posted: 9 Feb 2019, 0:29:00 UTC - in response to Message 1061.  

Here’s an update regarding the ETA of 10^20, comparing 18 January 2019 vs. 8 February 2019.

On 18 January 2019:
- The project was 83.59% completed
- The task average runtime was 2.7 hours
- 0.09% of the project was being completed daily
- With no slowdown in runtime, the remaining 16.41% of the project, with 0.09% of the project being completed daily,
would be completed in 182 days, or 19 July 2019.

On 8 February 2019:
- The project is 85.23% completed
- The task average runtime is 3.4 hours
- 0.06% of the project is being completed daily
- With no slowdown in runtime, the remaining 14.77% of the project, with 0.06% of the project being completed daily,
will be completed in 246 days, or 12 October 2019.

Over the past 21 days, the expected completion date, as calculated, is now 85 days further into the future, 12 October 2019 vs. 19 July 2019.
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vseven

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Message 1080 - Posted: 15 Feb 2019, 15:44:57 UTC
Last modified: 15 Feb 2019, 16:25:19 UTC

I'm wondering if people are leaving because its taking so long and CPU's are kinda useless at this point. Maybe increase the RAC given since its taking a lot more work to help retain people? If your estimates are right and people are leaving things are going to get worse.
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Allen Paschke

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Message 1081 - Posted: 16 Feb 2019, 0:49:07 UTC - in response to Message 1080.  

On 15 February 2019:
- The project is 85.59% completed
- The task average runtime is 3.4 hours
- 0.05% of the project is being completed daily
- With no slowdown in runtime, the remaining 14.41% of the project, with 0.05% of the project being completed daily,
will be completed in 288 days, or 30 November 2019.

In the last 7 days, the expected completion date, as calculated, is now 49 days further into the future (30 November 2019 vs. 12 October 2019).

I have the following questions and concerns regarding the project:
- How many Amicable Pairs, if any, are being found weekly?
With the 10^20 completion date probably going well into 2020, is it worth all the time and effort for a minimal number of Amicable Pairs?
- With the task runtime slowdown and the escalating completion date, how do you keep people interested in running Amicable Numbers?
A “long time” credit bonus would be beneficial, with a past or future effective date.
The “long time” credit bonus would probably need to be increased several times as Amicable Numbers continues to slow down.
- Since it’s difficult for CPU tasks to complete their run before the 72 hour deadline, how can people who can’t run GPU tasks make a contribution?
Does it make sense to initiate 10^21 tasks for CPU only.
- I’m sure other people have additional questions and concerns.

I would like to hear other people’s thoughts and opinions.
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vseven

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Message 1084 - Posted: 16 Feb 2019, 14:50:35 UTC

Also as a side note if you look at the top participants of this program you're going to see a bunch for charity engine. This is a program, running on a modified boinc client, that runs on people's computers with the intention of generating gridcoin and then they give out prizes to the participants randomly. Feel free to look them up.

Now I personally also crunch for gridcoin but the issue is almost every single computer under the charity engine umbrella is going to be a CPU only machine. And if CPU work units are not finishing in the allocated time that means the literally thousands and thousands of work units being sent to those people's computers are simply timing out. then once they time out they become available again. I believe this is why there are so many work units in process, the majority are never going to be completed.

GRCPool, another in the top participants, I can guarantee has a lot of users that have gpus and won't have this problem.

Just something else to throw in here. Would also be nice to hear from an admin from this project about these issues or see if anything can be done to get things moving a little quicker. From how it looks, if things keep going the way they are, the search at this level will never be completed.

As a side note I'm going to bring a machine online next week that can do about 22 WU every 2.5 hours at the current difficulty and I should be able to leave it running for 7-8 days. So that should help.
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Allen Paschke

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Message 1087 - Posted: 17 Feb 2019, 17:25:52 UTC - in response to Message 1084.  

I did investigate Charity Engine. Very interesting. 55% of their Work Credits come from Amicable Numbers, with the remaining Work Credits scattered across 20 other Projects. Based on their Recent Average Credit, Charity Engine is completing about 8,800 Amicable Numbers tasks daily.

If you some reason, such as Charity Engine can earn more Grid Coins elsewhere, Charity Engine moves all their Amicable Numbers users to another project, Amicable Numbers would be severely impacted.
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vseven

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Message 1088 - Posted: 17 Feb 2019, 18:25:45 UTC - in response to Message 1087.  

No, not at all. As long as there doing good work then they should be kept. I just know with how long CPU tasks are taking that a large amount going to those computers are probably timing out.

If they are still completing over eight thousand tasks a day then that's great for the project. I would worry though as time goes on if they aren't completing all of those but they will move to other projects. And with that said maybe the deadline on work units needs to be increased not only so that doesn't happen with them but also for more casual users they won't get things timed out.
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Allen Paschke

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Message 1130 - Posted: 21 Apr 2019, 16:48:42 UTC - in response to Message 1088.  

Here’s an update regarding the ETA of 10^20, comparing 19 April 2019 vs. 15 February 2019.

On 19 April 2019:
- The project is 88.52% completed
- The task average task runtime is 3.7 hours
- The average number of tasks in progress is 15,000
- Charity Engine is completing 7,350 tasks daily
- 0.04% of the project is being completed daily
- With no slowdown in runtime, the remaining 11.48% of the project, with 0.04% of the project being completed daily,
would be completed in 288 days, or 31 January 2020.

On 15 February 2019:
- The project was 85.59% completed
- The task average task runtime was 3.4 hours
- The average number of tasks in progress was 18,000
- Charity Engine was completing 8,800 tasks daily
- 0.05% of the project was being completed daily
- With no slowdown in runtime, the remaining 14.41% of the project, with 0.05% of the project being completed daily,
will be completed in 288 days, or 30 November 2019.

Over the past 63 days, the expected completion date, as calculated, is now 62 days further into the future, 31 January 2020 vs. 30 November 2019.
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Allen Paschke

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Message 1139 - Posted: 19 May 2019, 20:03:56 UTC - in response to Message 1130.  

Once again, Amicable Numbers has slowed down.

Here’s an update regarding the ETA of 10^20, comparing 17 May 2019 vs. 19 April 2019.

On 17 May 2019:
- The project is 89.41% completed
- The task average task runtime is 3.9 hours
- The average number of tasks in progress is 13,400
- Charity Engine is completing 6,625 tasks daily
- 0.03% of the project is being completed daily
- With no slowdown in runtime, the remaining 10.59% of the project, with 0.03% of the project being completed daily,
will be completed in 353 days, or 4 May 2020.

On 19 April 2019:
- The project was 88.52% completed
- The task average task runtime is 3.7 hours
- The average number of tasks in progress was 15,000
- Charity Engine was completing 7,350 tasks daily
- 0.04% of the project was being completed daily
- With no slowdown in runtime, the remaining 11.48% of the project, with 0.04% of the project being completed daily,
would be completed in 287 days, or 31 January 2020.

Over the past 28 days, the expected completion date, as calculated, is now 94 days further into the future, 4 May 2020 vs. 31 January 2020.
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